by Dr. Tim Robinson via Federal News Network

While quantum computing was once viewed as a distant concern, recent technological advances have made it clear that the risk is becoming increasingly real. As federal agencies continue modernizing IT systems and applications, many still rely on legacy encryption that may not withstand future quantum attacks.

Federal technology environments are often shaped by policies and architectures planned years in advance. Systems designed six or seven years ago were built to meet the security requirements of that time, not emerging priorities such as zero trust or quantum-resilient encryption. Because sensitive government data must remain secure for decades, agencies must begin preparing quantum-safe systems now.

Quantum risk is no longer just a future concern; it has become a planning challenge that must be addressed as part of current modernization efforts.

The risk of inaction

Today, sensitive information is secured through cryptographic algorithms such as Rivest-Shamir-Adleman (RSA), Advanced Encryption Standard (AES) and elliptic curve cryptography (ECC), which protect how data is stored and shared between agencies. However, advances in quantum computing threaten these protections. Quantum systems could eventually solve the mathematical problems that traditional encryption relies on, rendering current security standards obsolete.

While quantum computers are not yet widely available, governments and research institutions are actively developing them. This reality forces agencies to assume that adversaries may already possess encrypted government data and are waiting until quantum computers are powerful enough to decrypt it. This "harvest now, decrypt later" scenario underscores why preparing quantum-safe systems cannot wait.

When organizations reconstruct their security systems, they must ensure that data remains protected through quantum-safe encryption so it cannot be accessed in the future. The challenge is significant: Systems built today without quantum-ready architectures risk accumulating serious technical debt.

When encryption is hardcoded into software, updating it becomes costly and complicated. This is where crypto-agility matters. Crypto-agility is not simply swapping algorithms; it requires an architecture built for change from the ground up. Without this flexibility, agencies may find themselves forced to replace entire systems, rewriting software and redesigning networks from scratch.

This is both a security risk and a mission risk. If a network is compromised, it can create a ripple effect, causing other agencies to sever connections to protect themselves. A quantum breach could undermine trust between federal networks and disrupt critical operations if systems must be taken offline. Failing to prepare could ultimately lead to mission disruption.

 

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